The GOP must respect the Ron Paul supporter.
That is, at least, one of the lessons being derived from the 2012 Presidential election results, according to one analyst.
According to an analysis at PolicyMic.com, Ron Paul supporters may have contributed to the cause of Mitt Romney’s defeat in at least five states.
“New analysis reveals that in no less than five states, Romney’s margin of loss to President Obama in the general election was less than the number of votes received by Ron Paul in that state’s primary,” wrote PolicyMic contributor Hamdan Azhar.
In the states of Connecticut, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia a combined total of 71 electoral colleges votes were at stake. Had Romney won those states and the support of the Ron Paul voter (assuming he didn’t win any or much of the Ron Paul vote in those states), Romney would have also won the electoral college in a narrow 277-261 victory, Azhar argued.
For example, in Connecticut where Romney’s loss margin was 7,614, Ron Paul’s primary vote count from the primaries held earlier in 2012 was 8,032. Had Ron Paul supporters not thrown their support to Romney and stayed home, Azhar explains that it did contribute to a loss for Romney in that state.
The margin of victory for President Obama in New Hampshire was 40,421 and the number of people who voted for Ron Paul in the New Hampshire Republican primary was 56,872.
“In New Hampshire, 71 percent of Paul votes are needed to make up the margin, while in Ohio and Virginia, that number is closer to 95 percent,” Azhar wrote.
Obama’s margin of victory was 107,241 in Ohio; and Ron Paul received 113,256 votes during primary season there.
In Virginia, Romney’s loss margin was 100,499; Ron Paul received 107,451 votes in the Virginia primary.
In Florida, where Romney lost by 46,666 votes to Obama, Ron Paul received 117,461 votes in the Florida primary.
“If only 40 percent of these Ron Paul Republicans stayed home on Election Day, it would have been enough to cost Romney the state and its 29 electoral votes,” he explained.
But admittedly, his analysis is based on assumptions. And there’s no way of proving what actions Ron Paul supporters took at the polls on November 6.
But some people believe that the Ron Paul vote had a tremendous impact on the election for the Republicans.
“After studying the election results, there is one glaring fact the Republican Party failed to understand: The Ron Paul Effect,” wrote Young Americans for Liberty Executive Director Jeff Frazee in a mass e-mail on November 10.
He continued: “Mitt Romney and the Republican Establishment lost on Election Day because they lost libertarian and conservative voters.”
In 2012, former New Mexico Governor and 2012 Libertarian Party Presidential candidate Gary Johnson received a record-breaking 1,233,168 votes–more votes than any Libertarian Party candidate in history.
Some analysts, including Ron Paul himself, said that Ron Paul supporters may have thrown their support to the Libertarian Party candidate in 2012.