Politic365

 
 


Grito

1:30pm October 18, 2012

Richard Carmona Leads in the Polls and Fundraising in Arizona

carmona-758736

Democratic candidate for Senate in Arizona, former Surgeon General Richard Carmona, raised almost $500,00 more than his opponent, Republican Jeff Flake in the quarter ending September 30. Plus, in several polls it appears that Carmona is leading Flake, at least before a negative anti-woman ad that Flake ran last week.

All told Carmona raised $1.8 million to Flake’s $1.26 million in August and September.

Polling varies, but several show Carmona ahead of Flake. The DSCC’s poll shows Carmona ahead 47% to Flake’s 43% and Public Policy Polling shows Carmona leading 45% to 43%. One poll, by YouGov, shows Flake ahead 44% to 38% and then predictably Flake’s campaign released a poll with him ahead, 49% to 43%.

But the latest chatter about the campaign was related to an ad from Flake that attempts to shatter Carmona’s moral character, particularly as it pertains to the treatment of women. Although the ad is somewhat melodramatic, and the events depicted therein are in dispute, the Carmona campaign released its own retort ad with a woman attesting to the candidate’s character.

The Wall Street Journal implied that Flake pushed the ad in a desperate move to regain ground in a race that he previously led by double-digits. Although polls dispute the actual figures, the numbers show the candidates are now neck-in-neck. The piece also pointed out that, facing declining popularity, Flake has begun to waver on some of his previous more conservative stances.

Now that two of three debates between the candidates have taken place, it’s not exactly clear what effect either campaign has seen based on debate performance. The debates have served to bring the race to the forefront — Monday’s debate took place less than week after early voting started — but more than anything they have allowed candidates to elaborate on their stances.

The fact that Carmona is a Latino candidate is interesting in this race, although he is a Puerto Rican from New York and the majority of Latinos in Arizona are Mexican American. Ultimately, though, as we’ve previously reported, Latinos don’t vote based on race or ethnicity.

Rather, Latinos vote for candidates based on whether they have policy positions in keeping with their beliefs.

We previously interviewed Professor Luis Fraga, Associate Vice Provost for Faculty Advancement at the University of Washington and a political scientist who studies Latino voting behavior who noted, “Studies show that Latino voters are much more interested in supporting a candidate who has policy positions similar to their own than they do supporting a co-ethnic or a candidate who speaks Spanish.”

One thing that may benefit Carmona related to Latino voters is the fact that there’s a huge anti-Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio push in the state this election. Latino voters and organizers across the state have been investing heavily in booting him from office, and the “show me your papers” law SB 1070 spurred activists to get organized, creating new Latino grassroots infrastructure in the state.

Whether this infrastructure will result in get out the vote activity significant enough to affect the election is not certain, but Maricopa county houses 60% of Arizona’s population — and one third of those residents are Latinos, who tend to vote for Democrats.



About the Author

Sara Inés Calderón
Sara Inés Calderón
Sara Inés Calderón is a journalist and writer bouncing between California and Texas.




 
 

 
Voto Latino Power Summit 2014

Voto Latino celebrates 10 year anniversary with Power Summit in NYC

Voto Latino, a civic engagement organization that targets young Latinos, is celebrating its ten year anniversary. For the past two days in New York City, young Latinos have been attending the first of four Power Summits being h...
by Adriana Maestas
0

 
 
9596874977_0f8ffa2700_b

New report highlights dire Latino voter situation in Texas

In Texas, Latinos are projected to reach a plurality of the population (43%), and for the past few years, politicians and operatives have been buzzing about tapping into this growing population to loosen the GOP grip on the sta...
by Adriana Maestas
0

 
 
1070 Filing

Rep. Ed Pastor announces retirement, State Rep. Gallego announces candidacy

Congressman Ed Pastor (D-Arizona) has announced that he would be retiring at the end of his current term. In an announcement posted on Facebook, Rep. Pastor said, “After 23 years in Congress serving the people of Arizona,...
by Adriana Maestas
0

 

Advertisement
 
8912517835_19c5146580_c

Nearly four years after signing SB 1070, Brewer vetoes anti-gay bill, SB 1062

Yesterday Arizona Governor Jan Brewer vetoed a bill that would have allowed businesses in her state to refuse service to anyone based on grounds of religious freedom. Businesses would have been legally allowed to refuse service...
by Adriana Maestas
0

 
 
gamechanger

Politic365 Honors its 2013 Class of Game Changers

“Here’s to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently. They’re not fond of rules. And they have no respect for the status qu...
by Kristal High
0

 




2 Comments


  1. [...] that are at the core of the state’s identity. Carmona was seen as the underdog in the race, as we reported, but several polls show him ahead and he out-fundraised his Republican opponent in the last [...]



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>