Facebook Data: Romney Should Pick Marco Rubio

Facebook Data: Romney Should Pick Marco Rubio

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Austin, TX — One month after its public launch, Polygraph Media today shared findings from a deep analysis of Facebook performance of eight front running Republican Vice President candidates. The analysis reveals, in the end, Marco Rubio would be the best and smartest VP choice for Mitt Romney, if Facebook was used as an accurate barometer of American preferences. More detail on the findings, and an infographic, are available HERE, and open to public use and reprint.

“We know the selection process for the Vice President candidate is extremely intense. Every political, social, and personal decision of a candidate is unearthed and analyzed by teams of Washington insiders,” said Polygraph founder, Chris Treadaway, who is also the author of “Facebook Marketing: An Hour A Day. “Beyond the mountains of filings and records, business deals and personal issues, today we have another entire data set to analyze: Facebook data.”

“All potential running mates have been using Facebook avidly as a voice for their political brand and a place to communicate with their supporters. This highly visible, deep interaction between politicians and those they represent provides us with tons of data ripe for mining. Each interaction (like, post, comment, etc.) is a discrete data point that might have more to tell regarding this Vice Presidential selection process than what many may realize,” added Treadaway.

“Can recent activity on Facebook help the Romney campaign identify the right and best running mate? We took a look at what Facebook data would reveal.”

With estimates of 51% of Americans on Facebook (according to an early 2011 Arbitron and Edison Research report), even assuming some of those users are under the voting age of 18 (with Facebook publicly allowing anyone 13 and over to join), this is a healthy chunk of American sentiment to consider. Is Facebook an accurate barometer of American preference, and a guide for decision making for brands, but also political candidates all the way up to the potential President of the United States? Polygraph Media believes deeply in the immense value of data in Facebook and built its business around finding easy, affordable ways for brands – or candidates – to access and assess that information.

For purposes of the Romney campaign, Polygraph Media wanted to get a pulse on who 150+ Million Americans would likely respond best to in terms of a Republican running mate. Eight front runners were compared including: Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Jim Demint, Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Rob Portman and Marco Rubio.

Then, Polygraph Media dug into the following Facebook metrics:
• Fan count
• Percentage of “Likes” over 5 quarters of posts
• Pro or negative “Romney” in page posts
• Pace of new Facebook fan acquisitions predicted between now and election day based on previous pace (how many new Friends per day)
• Polarization – the activity of Americans on 3rd Party “pro” and “against” Facebook Pages for each potential candidate

Full detail and findings can be seen here.

As expected, candidates had different strengths and weaknesses across different metrics. Ultimately, in terms of best performance, engagement and sentiment, the results revealed Chris Christie and Marco Rubio as the best two candidates. Polygraph then went one step further and considered a non-Facebook-culled factor: power of the home state to affect an election, if you assume the majority of Facebook fans are from that candidate’s home state. Comparing New Jersey and Florida netted out Marco Rubio given the importance of Florida as a swing state, critical in any election.

And so, utilizing the mass intelligence residing in Facebook, Polygraph Media reveals today that Marco Rubio would be the smartest, best choice for Republican Vice President for Mitt Romney. The people – through Facebook – have spoken.

Whether for intelligence on the best runner-up POTUS, or just to analyze a marketing campaign, do a competitive comparison, or improve social marketing approaches, Polygraph Media social data mining and analytics brings science and intelligence to agencies, brands, even political campaigns. With a data science approach, Polygraph Media works in real-time to collect data from Facebook Pages and subscriber-enabled Profiles, and quantifies it in over 40 charts, graphs, and data visualizations to give marketers actionable intelligence to inform marketing campaigns and strategies. As a “truth detector” for Facebook marketing, Polygraph Reports are ideal for brands with a major Facebook presence and the agencies or consultants who work with them.

About Polygraph Media: Polygraph Media, based in Austin TX, is privately funded and founded by experts in social media, Facebook and big data. A social data mining tool, first for Facebook, but also for other social platforms in the future, Polygraph helps companies – and their agencies or consultants – understand their social media data and act upon it in new, innovative ways. As a Facebook marketing truth detector, Polygraph shows how social assets are performing and helps turn that social data into real, actionable engagement intelligence for more effective campaigns. Free reports are available.

1 COMMENT

  1. Mitt is no betting man like John McCain. His safest choice is still Rob Portman, and he will pick him soon enough.
    In the meantime, Mitt will continue to tease the others, along the path laid out by Queen Elizabeth for broadening support 500 years ago. The shrewd Queen used the interests of her many suitors then to transform a fledgling country into the powerhouse of Europe.
    Yes, the VP sweepstakes demand shrewdness — but also give us a chance to see if the candidate can navigate the country. The process has presented a wealth of opportunities for Mitt thus far and he has made the most of them.
    Not bad.

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