Guest Contributor

February 11, 2012 | Politics

More than Just the Benjamins, Mr. Romney

by ELBERT MCQUILLER

An analysis of the $15.4 million in independent expenditures disbursed in support of the remaining GOP candidates – as of 2/7/12 – shows that Mitt Romney received $1.8 million, Newt Gingrich received $6 million, Rick Santorum $3.7 million, and Ron Paul $3.8 million.

Despite the considerable gap in supportive expenditures between Santorum and Gingrich, Santorum won the Missouri primary and the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses on February 7.

Gingrich also finished 3rd in Colorado behind Romney.

Similarly, a review of the $27 million in independent expenditures disbursed in opposition to the GOP candidates shows that $9 million was used in opposition to Romney, $17 million in opposition to Gingrich, $430,000 in opposition to Santorum and only $133,000 in opposition to Paul.

Despite the relatively small amount disbursed in opposition to Paul, he finished last in both Missouri where Gingrich was not on the ballot as well as in Colorado where all four candidates were on the ballot. Paul had the lowest ratio of opposition to supportive disbursements, but it did not translate into political success in the most recent caucuses and primary.

Of course, Super PACs have not yet become the primary source of candidate support in the 2012 election. According to the New York Times, as of the end of December 2011, the now remaining GOP contenders’ campaigns had raised $98.1 million. Of that total, Romney’s share was $57.1 million, Paul’s share $26.1 million, Gingrich’s $12.7 million and Santorum’s only $2.2 million.

Based on these figures Rick Santorum’s recent success as well as his earlier performance in Iowa seem highly improbable in a political environment where funding coffers are allegedly decisive. Interestingly, during that same period Barack Obama had raised nearly $140 million—42% more than the four Republicans combined.

Tweet Me, Meet Me, Tumble, Stumble, But I Really Hope You Like Me

Although large sums of cash can clearly fund activities associated with political mobilization, the prevalence of free and low cost social media as an organizing tool mitigates the historical advantage bestowed upon the rainmaker.

Of course, centralized political campaigns have studied the Obama 2008 playbook and exploit social media in a virtuous evergreen cycle of fundraising. Money still begets more money.

However, the relatively low barriers of entry provided also appeal to decentralized movements and issue advocacy. Think Arab Spring or Occupy Wall Street. The ability of like-minded individuals and groups to organize even in the absence of deep pockets has probably never been greater. Although Super PACs tend to frame their own activities through a romanticized Don Quixote-like lens, the reality is that most, if not all, are backed by high profile, very influential political insiders.

Any claim of bottoms-up mobilization is a veneer.

It is no coincidence that the GOP candidates have also attempted to tap into the political avatar of “outsider.” Never mind that two of the four remaining contenders are former high profile Republican Congressman with one actually having attained the position of House Speaker. Among the other two, one is an existing Congressman from Texas and the other, the possible front-runner, is a former Governor and successful retired investment banker.

Notwithstanding their existing name recognition and status, the four remaining GOP candidates were the beneficiaries of nearly $4.8 million of independent expenditures disbursed in support of their candidacies for internet marketing activities including social media. That figure is approximately 31% of the total independent expenditures disbursed in support of those candidates as of 2/7/12. Additionally, $2.6 million in independent expenditures were disbursed for the purpose of opposing one or more of the same candidates via internet marketing during that same time period.

So, Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Elephant in the Room?

It was announced last week that Priorities USA Action had only raised $4.4 million through the end of last year. Meanwhile, the Karl Rove-led conservative Super PAC, Restore Our Future, had already raised $30 million and the similarly oriented American Crossroads super PAC and its 501(c) 4 affiliate Crossroads GPS had raised $51 million. Perhaps more importantly, American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS intend to raise as much as $300 million to help defeat Obama and it has been reported that conservative billionaire Koch brothers have already secured $100 million in pledges for conservative based Super PACs and non-profits. Obama aides have expressed alarm that the Karl Rove/Koch brothers unlimited spending might result in $500 million in attack ads against the President. Against this backdrop, the Obama campaign has reasonably concluded that rejecting Super PAC disbursements would be tantamount to unilateral disarmament.

Folks: let’s get ready to rumble!