Obama in the Red Zone on Jobs. But, Can He Score?

President Barack Obama got some good Super Bowl weekend news from Friday’s jobs report. The nation’s unemployment rate fell to 8.3% in January from December 2011’s 8.5%. Some 243,000 people were added to America’s non-farm payrolls. Some analysts reported that the increase may have been the result of relatively strong performance in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The big news was the Black unemployment rate: it dropped.  The African American community also got a big boost in employment in January. The number of African Americans who are employed increased by 497,000, with approximately 15,725,000 now working. The number of African Americans who are unemployed fell from 2,862,000 to 2,482,000. The number of Black Americans no longer in the labor force increased, however, by 345,000. The number of African Americans not in the labor force now stands at 11,521,000.

The labor force is defined as individuals between the ages of 16 and 64 who are willing to work and seeking employment.

The unemployment rate for African Americans fell to 13.6% in January, down from the December rate of 15.8%. Recent downward movement in the rate has been based in large part to African Americans leaving the labor force.

January’s statistics, however, appear to tell a different story.

Some 96,000 African Americans entered the labor force in January. When combined with the increase in the number of African Americans employed one can conclude that opportunities may be opening up.  Or: it’s collective confidence garnered from seeing other African Americans find work that’s having a positive psychological impact on those who were sitting on the sidelines.

The Hispanic American population also saw positive gains. Some 775,000 Hispanics entered the labor force in January and the number of Latinos employed increased by 814,000. The number of unemployed Hispanics fell by 39,000 along with the unemployment rate which fell to 10.5% in January from 11% in December 2011. The number of Hispanics no longer in the labor force, however, increased by 641,000.

So where was the job growth?

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, professional and business services added 70,000 jobs. Half the increase, ironically, was in job services. Other areas within business and professional services contributing significantly were accounting, bookkeeping, architectural, and engineering services.

Health care services saw continued growth, with 31,000 jobs added while leisure and hospitality services saw an additional 44,000 jobs added.

Whether or not the economy will see continued job growth or fall in the unemployment rate is uncertain. President Obama indicated as much yesterday when commenting on the jobs report.

Economist and University of Maryland business professor Peter Morici made similar observations yesterday, concluding that unemployment may not fall much further and the rate could rise again. “Job growth in the range of 130,000 should be expected to barely accommodate labor force growth but not much lower the unemployment rate. That is hardly a pace that will restore economic health, or validate President Obama’s heavy intervention in the economy and industrial policies in the upcoming Presidential campaign,” Morici said.

It is estimated that the economy must add some 13 million jobs over the next three years to get the unemployment rate down to 6%. A six percent unemployment rate is on the high end of what is considered the range for normal unemployment in the United States. That range is four to six percent.

While expressing that the job growth numbers are positive, some conservative critics have been making it clear that the results are positive in spite of President Obama’s economic policies. In the Heritage Foundation blog The Foundry, Mike Brownfield was skeptical: “Make no mistake: 243,000 jobs is good, but we should be seeing numbers upwards of 350,000. America can and should do better.“ Mr. Brownfield cited President Obama’s promise that the stimulus package would result in an unemployment rate of no more than eight percent. Mr. Brownfield also stated that temporary tax cuts and threatened tax hikes on businesses would not create job growth.

As the presidential election season heats up, the Obama Administration appears as if it’s driving to the end zone for a score with the GOP unwittingly playing zone defense. Given the probable impact continued economic slowdown in Europe may have on trade, combined with the pressures our own debt and deficit may have on continued growth, scoring from the red zone will be difficult for the Administration. Americans may not be satisfied with a field goal either.

Alton Drew is a political economist and commentator. In addition to being a contributing writer at Politic365.com, Mr. Drew blogs at Law and Politics of Broadband, Paying for Dodd Frank, and The American Centrist. Follow him on Twitter @altondrew, become a friend at https://www.facebook.com/alton.drew, or visit his website at www.altondrew.com.

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