Jason Johnson
+ FollowNew Hampshire: Wrapping it Up While GOP Shoots Ron Paul on Sight
Former Massachusetts governor and frontrunner by default Mitt Romney is going to win the New Hampshire primary. This is not in question, there are no surprises coming.
Move along, nothing to see here.
He’s had an insurmountable lead in the state for months on end that has not changed radically since the Iowa Caucuses and none of his rivals are in a position to overtake him or make a strong run at second place.
So what could possibly be learned from tonight’s polls?
There are a couple of scenarios that could keep the Republican nomination process interesting instead of the 12 month coronation process that it has been thus far.
The Huntsman Rises
Most polls show Romney with anywhere from an 18 to 15 point lead over his next closest competitor Ron Paul. A poll released Monday by Suffolk University and a local news station had Romney at 37%, Ron Paul at 18%, Huntsman at 16%, Santorum at 11%, Gingrich at 9% and Rick Perry representing the 1%.
If Jon Huntsman were to capture a huge chunk of the undecided voters (7%) and perhaps catch a wave of contrarian Republicans in New Hampshire – that don’t want to rubber stamp Iowa – he could catapult himself into 2nd place. Would this make Huntsman the nominee? Of course not. However, the effect of his second place finish would keep him in the debates for South Carolina and all but guarantee that candidates like Rick Perry would be out of the race within two weeks.
Santorum Surge Part 2
Santorum is polling anywhere from a distant third to 4th in the New Hampshire primary and there’s no reason to think that he’ll perform a miracle in a state whose Republican voters are not nearly as conservative as Iowans or South Carolinians. However: similar to Huntsman, if Santorum were to come in second in this primary or at least come within a hairs breath of Ron Paul (who will likely come in second) then he can claim a legitimate Santorum surge and there will be sweater vests for everyone.
Paul Falls
Everyone in politics knows that Ron Paul’s ceiling in this presidential campaign is limited by many factors, from his own ambivalence about wanting the job, to the Republican establishment’s desire to shoot him and his supporters on sight.
However, one scenario that would radically change this race would be if he were to precipitously fall in the final polls here in New Hampshire. This is less about placement in the polls (2nd, 3rd, or 4th) and more about what numbers he’s able to pull. New Hampshire is seen as the last primary state where Ron Paul’s non-traditional foreign policy views and criticism of his own party will have any traction with GOP primary voters. Places like South Carolina and Florida will not embrace him politically and the lack of young voters makes his chances of scoring significant numbers even less likely. If Paul doesn’t break 20% of the vote, even if he comes in second to Romney then his campaign, even as a Ralph Nader type spoiler movement will have lost all steam.
Going Newt-Cular
Newt has already made it clear that he’s going after Mitt Romney with every ounce of resources he’s got left, and he doesn’t really care about winning the nomination at this point. He scored some points with his King of Bain type attacks against Romney and like clock-work Mittens slipped up and gave the other Republicans and Team Obama one of the most damning quotes of this entire primary season. Newt doesn’t have to win, or even do well in New Hampshire, but he can’t totally fail either. If he earns less than 10% of the vote, knowing that he trails Santorum and Romney in South Carolina and has little or no chance of winning there, his campaign would be reduced to an extended speaking tour and roast of Mitt Romney. Funny, engaging … but not actually relevant to the race anymore.
In just a few hours we will begin the countdown to the end of the Republican nomination race. Hopefully one of the scenarios above will occur, leading to healthier competition down the road. If not, Romney will have wrapped up his nomination sometime in early February.
DR. JASON JOHNSON, Politic365 Chief Political Correspondent, is a professor of Political Science at Hiram College in Ohio and author of the book Political Consultants and Campaigns: One Day to Sell. You can read more at www.drjasonjohnson.com or follow him on Twitter @Drjasonjohnson
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16 Responses to New Hampshire: Wrapping it Up While GOP Shoots Ron Paul on Sight
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Hahaha says:
I couldn't stop laughing while reading this. It's amazing that you people are still trying this stuff. You-Know-Who 2012
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dink says:
What will be interesting is Dr Paul gets 23-27% then the contest goes into the South. While the other establishment candidates take chunks out of Romney. Mitt Romney is no Jack Kennedy , so people who don't think religion doesn't matter in the south do not know Baptists.
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URwhatiswrong says:
Very good analysis – I concur for the most part.
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wsjiii says:
Lol, this article reads like an eighth-grader's assessment of the GOP field.
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Same old garbage, I`d like to read an artical by real journalist. Paul gets asked the same questions about running for president, and answers them the same way every time.
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PoliticsAsUsual says:
The essence of your analysis: "Everyone but Ron Paul surges. He drops out and the world is back to normal."
I think this is more wishful thinking on your part. Thanks for the laugh.
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mahmoud says:
Dear Author, I hope you have a real job to fall on in case your writing skills do not take off. Can you say "want fries with that?"
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ClydeSATx says:
Ron Paul wins New Hampshire and the Media talks about Romneys Strong second place finish and how Huntsman was a Respectable 3rd.. lol the Reality is Santorum is Unelectable. not because i don't like him but because the Constitution aka THE LAW finds him UNFIT to hold office. as he openly advocates the Catholic Bible being used to Define Marriage regardless of the 1st Amendment to the Bill of Rights.. "We are Democracy and can be a Theocracy if we can just trick 51% into going along" Do your Job Media.. Ron Paul should of been President in 1988. "We spend enough money on the war on drugs to feed every child in America 2 meals, are we a society that cares?" Ron Paul .. stop painting him as this heartless person who hates Social Security and Medicare.. the only people going to lose their SPOT at the Honey Pot is the Fascist MIC,FSI,and Prison Industrial Complex.
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123 says:
Ron Paul is the only man for the job.
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A Ron Paul ceiling? Heard that before…Thing is, the ceiling keeps rising.
Ambivilance to wanting the job? That is just a laugh.
Newt-cular? Seems like he's wasting alot of energy and $$ if he just wants to slander Romney.
You could have just summed up the whole article as follows
: I am voting for Romney. The rest are just playing games (for fun). Lets sit back, watch the ceilings and implosions then vote the 'serious contender'.
Sorry, its not that simple. The USA is changing and we are in for more surprises. These are big stakes and the players are here to win. -
The author of this article doesn't understand that the Ron Paul team and its voters will settle for nothing less than the Romney VP spot (for Rand Paul or Judge Napolitano or an equivalent). Remember that McCain actually thought Sarah Palin was a libertarian Republican before she embarrassed everyone by trying to be more of a religious feminist grizzly mama.
Unlike Santorum making the last stand, forever, for the dying social con generation, the forces of libertarian Republicanism are on the ascent and probably won't allow even Romney to take the White House without him closely cooperating with them in his administration.
Just like Bob Barr helped sink McCain/Palin, Gary Johnson is already running 3rd party and he would get much of the Ron Paul vote if Ron and Rand and Judge Napolitano, etc appear to be locked out of a proposed Romney Administration.
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By the way, I disagree with Ron Paul on foreign policy but he's too compelling on domestic policy and individual rights to not vote for him (and if Iran is not taken care of by 2013, it will be too late anyway and why didn't Bush take care of Iran instead of allowing the Iranians to kill 4000 US soldiers in Iraq).
Ron Paul, for instance, is the only Republican politician besides Tom Tancredo who has voted no to all the new anti-male feminist laws like VAWA in the past ten years. VAWA, among other atrocities, allows a woman to take over a man's house by claiming he hit her while living with her. It is no coincidence that the core of Ron Paul support is single males who feel betrayed by the likes of Santorum and McCain who voted for laws like VAWA.
The bottom line is that this is no gentleman's parlor game for Ron Paul supporters. They won't be going home or voting for the winner in the general if they "lose fair and square in the primaries".
You have to understand that this libertarian Republicanism (the single male vote) is on the rise and it is a movement that intends to get heavy cooperation from the GOP or the GOP goes down.
We certainly won't allow another true social conservative in the White House ever. Our animosity toward social cons has nothing to do with any affinity toward gays or gay marriage. It's all about our own heterosexual freedoms such as the ability to not be financially raped in a divorce.
Without cooperation (power sharing) from you guys who claim to be fellow conservatives, a scorched earth policy will continue as it did with Bob Barr voters in 2008.
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Mitt Romney says:
I noticed you have the prestigious title of Dr.
That's good for you since your career as horrible writer and biased journalist probably won't work out too well for you.
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Jin Mugen says:
dude – "since your career as horrible writer …"
you say he can't write, yet you sound like a drunken Boris from the Rocky and Bullwinkle Show.
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i don't agree with your assessment