Lauren Victoria Burke

January 05, 2012 | Politics

Dash Diet Democracy: Delegates Matter, Not Votes

When the GOP changed their rules from winner-take-all to proportional delegate selection it meant something. While many concentrate on the horse race the only show in town is the delegate count.

So, what happened? Did all of those Iowa caucus-goers come out in the bone-chilling cold for nothing?

Yes, former Gov. Mitt Romney “won” by 8 votes and yes that’s close and exciting. But does it matter? The real race was over at about 8:30 p.m. when we knew the top three candidates would have over 20%. Under the new GOP primary rules, Romney, Santorum and Paul will split the delegates with each getting 5 or six.

In 2008 in New Hampshire, President Obama lost the popular vote and won the delegate count over Hillary Clinton. It would eventually take Obama 2,300 delegates to get the nomination away from Clinton. If the GOP keeps having even split results it will be a long year. Yes, you can win the popular vote and lose the delegate count.

The Romney 24%, Santorum 24%, Paul 21% split is all but an even three way tie. Four years ago it was Mike Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, Fred Thompson 13% and John McCain 13%. Romney needs to win New Hampshire decisively.

Florida (Jan. 31) is the exception to the new GOP proportion rules as the only winner-take-all state in the GOP primary season. It doesn’t matter who wins the percentage just who wins.

If Santorum and Paul, along with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, hang around until Super Tuesday on March 6 the delegate count is likely to become even more divided among the four. Whoever voted for Rep. Michelle Bachmann and Gov. Rick Perry is unlikely to pick Romney as their second choice and more likely to vote for Santorum or Gingrich.

According to an exit poll in Iowa by the New York Times, Santorum received 35% of the vote from people who had not decided on who to vote for before Tuesday, Jan. 3. That’s a deadly statistic for Romney, who has been running for President for 5 years and still can’t seal the deal.

If the same type of vote split seen in Iowa is seen in New Hampshire (Jan. 10) where Romney is the favorite, South Carolina (Jan. 21) or Florida (Jan. 31) the race could come down to the convention. By February 1 we’ll know how far not being Mitt Romney can get you.

Lauren Victoria Burke writes on Congress and politics from Capitol Hill in Washington DC. She is the creator of the blog Crewof42 on Black members of Congress. The blog was named one of the 30 Black Blogs You Should Know by The ROOT in 2011. Ms. Burke has worked on Capitol Hill, ABC News, USA TODAY.com, The Hill, The Washington Post and Associated Press. She can be heard every Tuesday at 4 p.m. on WMCS-AM 1290 in Milwaukee on THE EVENING RUSH with Earl Ingram and every Friday at 6:30 p.m. on WPFW-FM 89.3 in Washington DC on NEWS/VIEWS. She owns wdcpix.com photo service. Follow her on twitter at @crewof42.