Charles Ellison
+ FollowThe Numbers Behind the Newt Surge
The Republican primary has yet another flavor of the month. Here we go again … perhaps, going through the same thing as the song goes.
Newt Gingrich is blowing up the polls. And, obviously, Herman Cain’s exit has been a big help to the former House Speaker, who is reportedly struggling to keep pace with the newfound popularity. So let’s take a look at what all the fuss is about.
CNN/Time polls have Gingrich leading in most of the first four GOP primary states – which is problematic for Mitt Romney.
Gingrich is 33% in Iowa, Romney 20%, Ron Paul 17%, Rick Perry 9%, Michelle Bachmann 7%, Rick Santorum 5%, John Huntsman 1%. He’s 26% in New Hampshire against Romney’s 35% – Ron Paul is at 17% again. There’s Gingrich, though, at 43% in South Carolina (Romney might as well forget about this Southern state while at 20%) and in Florida, Gingrich is at 48% while Romney is 25%
The latest Farleigh Dickenson poll has Newt nationally at 36% at Romney’s 23%. Economist/YouGov shows Newt with 31% to Romney’s 15% – interestingly enough, Paul is at 11%. Gallup Daily Tracking puts out similar numbers, with Gingrich at 37% and Romney at 22%. The pre-Iowa caucus New York Times-CBS News poll has Gingrich at 31% again, blasting Romney who is at 17% and …. Look here: Paul at 16%.
Average it all out through the RealClearPolitics poll aggregator at Gingrich has a 10 point lead over Romney nationally – 31% to 20.5%.
We Ask America poll’s Iowa and puts the former Speaker at 30% with Mitt Romney at 16%.
The South Carolina Winthrop University poll shows Newt murdering folks at 38% against Romney’s 22%. Note: since 1980, every GOP winner of the South Carolina primary ends up winning the nomination. Here’s the ABC News-Washington Post poll showing Newt in Iowa with 33% to Romney’s 18% – oh … check this out: Paul also at 18%. The Post gets smart-allecky:
But Iowa Republicans are far from decided. More than six in 10 potential caucus-goers say they could change their minds, and even among the likeliest attendees, fewer than half say they have definitely chosen a candidate.
This is comedy: the New York Times/CBS News poll in Iowa says 31% of GOP primary voters really believe Newt can beat Obama in 2012 – compared to 29% about Romney. No word on what it is GOP primary voters are smoking.
How’s Romney, the inevitable nominee, taking all this?
Politico reports that the Newt craze:
[I]s prompting the first signs of nervousness among top Mitt Romney supporters, some of whom are urging their candidate to take a more aggressive approach to arrest the former House speaker’s sudden rise. With precious little time left before voting starts — and a big cache of votes now up for grabs thanks to Cain’s withdrawal — Romney supporters say the pressure is building on their candidate to step up and seize the Republican nomination that has drifted just out of his reach all year.
Here’s MSNBC’s First Read on it:
The traditional campaign strategy for dealing with a surging candidate with little or no money just four weeks out from the voting (see: Gingrich, Newt) is to pummel him/her with attack ads… Then again, you could make the argument that this is not a traditional campaign. There is a boomerang fear among some establishment Republicans who saw what happened in 2010.
And here’s Romney pushing this new “he’s a better man and husband” theme in contrast to Newt in a recent ad:
<iframe width=”560″ height=”315″ src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/SvxDzS7B774″ frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen></iframe>
ABC News says:
[Y]ou can expect to see Romney surrogates making fairly direct references to Gingrich’s tumultuous past… You can also expect to see Ann Romney and the Romney family on the trail much more, especially in South Carolina, to create a visual contrast. Their presence on the trail ‘speaks for itself.
Not sure if that’s really going to work. 1) Voters, even in the Republican primary, are focused on the economy and what candidates can do about it. 2) Voters, as more recent modern elections are showing, like flawed candidates – or candidates that seem like they do. Most folks are in a rut, and a candidate on the campaign trail showing off their good-looking family may not resonate now as it did at one time.
Still, there’s one thing you can say about Romney: he’s consistent. While everyone else is on a roller coaster ride – up one day, down the next – Mitt is always never under 20%. That’s nothing to dismiss. It may mean he has a base.
But, National Review’s Robert Costa says we should not sleep on Ron Paul:
[P]aul rarely makes news, and his candidacy is frequently ignored by Beltway reporters. But headlines, his aides say, are overrated. In fact, the Texas Republican’s low-key autumn was strategic. As Paul’s competitors stumbled and sparred, he amassed a small fortune for his campaign and built a strong ground operation. And with January fast approaching, his team is ready to surprise the political world and sweep the Iowa caucuses. If Paul wins Iowa, the upset could upend what many politicos say is a two-man race between Gingrich and Romney. According to state GOP insiders, a Paul victory is a real possibility. In background conversations, many say Paul is much stronger than outside observers believe, with deep and wide support among a frustrated electorate. With Herman Cain’s departure from the race, operatives see Paul potentially collecting a quarter of caucus attendees.
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