Republican Polls: Don’t Believe the Hype

by Marvin King

John Huntsman and Ron Paul are both shying away from the Donald Trump-moderated GOP presidential debate in Des Moines on December 27 because they see a sham on the horizon. It is a sham; in fact, George Will and Arianna Huffington have stepped in and said this, so I don’t need to rehash a truism, especially when – even – the Washington Examiner is against the idea.

The real problems are the constantly updated polls that do little to add to the debate and in many ways detract. Polls become a story in and of themselves. In political science we refer to this as horserace journalism. Media pundits constantly focus on who is winning in the polls and what it means. Why don’t we focus on the content of their messages?

That would require actual hard work on the part of journalists and pundits to actually dissect candidates’ messages although some media outlets are clearly better than others at this task.

Nonetheless, polls are taken so frequently in presidential primaries as to be meaningless. This is not to castigate polling per se – it is just how they are overused in this particular context devalues their usefulness. Further, politicians draw the wrong conclusions from them.

After Michelle Bachmann won the Ames Straw Poll, Tim Pawlenty dropped out of the race even though he finished third. Yet, John Huntsman and Rick Santorum soldier on. But, if Ames meant so much, why is Michelle Bachmann finishing below Undecided or None of the Above in some polls?

Huntsman’s low results in the polls are a direct result of him getting little media attention which is a direct consequence of his low poll results. He is stuck in a vicious cycle. Unless he comes up with a catchy phrase like 9-9-9 his candidacy is sunk.

According to a listing of polls at Real Clear Politics, Newt Gingrich leads in Iowa by 7 points, and South Carolina by 14 points, but Romney leads in New Hampshire by 16 points. Somehow this all adds up to Gingrich leading overall by 21 points. Yet, a closer look at several polls over time shows that the exact order of the top-5 fluctuates. In other words, anything can still happen, which is why Santorum and Huntsman persevere. I wonder if Pawlenty regrets his decision to quit so soon.

My advice to Republican primary voter is to ignore the polls and the incessant “Oh, my God, this candidate tripped over his shoelaces and is therefore unworthy of the presidency” babble of the punditocracy and just focus on actual candidate platforms. Be smart enough to decide for yourself.

Marvin King received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of North Texas and is now an Associate Professor of Political Science with a joint appointment in the African American Studies Program at the University of Mississippi. He conducts research into how political institutions affect African American politics. Marvin is available for public speaking engagements and you can follow him on Twitter @kingpolitics 

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