Charles Ellison

December 31, 2010 | Uncategorized

What Will Happen in 2011, Politically?

Despite the typical holiday season lull that characterizes every end-of-the-year media cycle, the political chattering class always finds quite a bit to talk about. And even though many of us talking heads, poll junkies and pundits are worn out to burned out from one of the most active election and lame duck Congressional periods in recent memory, the big question remains as we continue picking holiday food from our teeth: what will 2011 look like?

It’s hard to predict the entire range of next year, but we can see what the priorities will be based on everything from poll projections and some of the activity during the 111^th Congressional lame duck session. The dynamics will, obviously, be much different with emboldened Republicans basking in the John Boehner (R-OH) suntan of a new majority. Focus will be on how the GOP manages that. But, Boehner – Speaker-designate for the 112^th Congress – will have much on his hands dealing with an intransigent right that wants to put its imprint on Capitol Hill, backed by a flood of freshmen-elects eager to create noise and legacy while sweating to keep tea-party promises they know will be near impossible to keep. While the consensus is that Boehner was the big (tear-jerking) political winner of 2010, ask us if that’s the case by the end of 2011. He’ll need a fresh supply of tears.

This will set the stage for a heated mid-term rematch in 2012 if Republicans can’t keep their right disciplined. The suspicion is that they will figure it out once new blood recognizes the reality of the back room deal. Everyone on Capitol Hill wants to get re-elected …. with the exception of Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) – a.k.a “Dr. No” – who recently announced this is his last term.

As we head into next year, we’ll have much to pick and pry at as far as political personalities are concerned. But, for the first few months – or 60 days – of the new Congress, here are several top policy priorities that I predict will suck up some oxygen inside the Beltway:

THE BUDGET

The legislative euphoria of the controversial bi-partisan tax cut deal will be short-lived and distant memory once the stinging reality of the federal budget begins to set in. Hence, President Barack Obama’s rush to get as far away from Washington as possible during the holiday season, in a place where the time zone takes some time to catch up with the stuffy insularity of the Beltway. Of major concern will be the cost of extending the tax cuts, wrapped into $800 billion more that we’ll have to borrow from the Chinese. At the moment, the federal government is running on a continuing resolution since Congress failed to craft a budget – and the President’s fiscal year 2012 budget isn’t expected until mid-February. But, that’s when it will all clash as all players try to figure out how to pay for that tax cut – igniting worries that those who most rely on the critical social safety net programs will suffer – and how to trim a nearly $2 trillion deficit at the same time. Boehner is too pragmatic to allow a government shutdown similar to 1995, but expect more continuing resolutions since the budget impasse will run into the summer unresolved.

HEALTHCARE

It’s not the issue Congressional Democrats or the White House want to run on heading into the 2012 election cycle, but they will have to figure out some way to positively re-brand what’s been hilariously and effectively poked at as “Obamacare” by Republicans. The GOP, on the other hand, feels they can squeeze this political nugget for all its worth and make additional gains in ’12, including a new President. That remains to be seen: the GOP could end up making the same mistake as Democrats in 2009 if unemployment persists or grows into next year. Still, the White House desperately needs to remodel health reform as Republicans seek to repeal it or slowly dismantle key provisions through budgetary gimmicks and legal maneuvering. Democrats have done a miserable job at re-branding it, with no one coming up with a catchy one-word political moniker that can out-do conservative morphing of the President’s name into his most historic legislative victory to date. Since it appears firing Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is off the table, the President needs to figure out a better public relations game. The problem with health care reform is most Americans don’t know what it is or how it works.

AfPak

While we’ll be immersed in the FY 2012 budget, a growing chorus of naysayers and gloomy policy prophets will be asking how we pay for the expanding war in Afghanistan – which is really the largest front in a larger World War III on “terrorism.” It’s a valid question considering U.S. troop build ups in the war-torn country, its cost and the other cost both military brass and federal lawmakers would like to ignore: redeploying troops out of Iraq while still maintaining a presence. The Administration’s goal, of course, is to keep an American foot in the region that can offset fears of rising Iranian influence. But, the big debate will be how we pay for all of this. In addition: how do we control an increasingly uncontrollable situation in Pakistan since we’ve been simply throwing money at it that’s ending up in Taliban/Al-qaeda hands. Expect numerous oversight hearings and attempts at cost controls while the Pentagon slashes its budget. But, definitely see an explosion in the budget-softening use of unmanned Predator drones executing war-zone offense.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Since he couldn’t pass comprehensive climate change legislation in 2010, President Obama will conduct a series of tactical moves aimed at reducing carbon emissions over the next decade. But, he’ll be quiet about it. As expected – and desired by many on the left – the Administration will simply switch gears by relying on administrative actions from the Environmental Protection Agency through existing regulations. It’s already started, with the EPA recently rolling out new guidelines for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It will be one of his more ambitious policy initiatives in 2011 as the President will seek to make nice with his tree-hugging left, a solid base of support for a 2012 re-election bid.

Charles D. Ellison, Managing Editor for Politic365.com, Washington Correspondent for The Philadelphia Tribune and a weekly political analyst providing insight on WDAS-FM (Philadelphia), WVON-AM (Chicago) and KSRO-AM (Sonoma County, CA). He is author of the critically-acclaimed urban political thriller TANTRUM. More information can be found at http://www.cdellison.com