Gubernatorial Races Could Impact New Congressional Districting

While many are eying how the midterm election will turn out for Congressional House and Senate seats, others are keeping close tabs on the gubernatorial races which will have an outcome on redistricting.  Every 10 years, after each census,  many State Governor’s and Attorney General’s offices reassess and redraw Congressional districts to reflect the changes in their state’s population.  This year, 36 states will be involved in the redistricting process and the remaining will use nonpartisan redistricting procedures, or use at-large seats to reflect population shifts.

Traditionally, whatever political party is in control at the time of redistricting has the opportunity to draw the district lines in a way favorable to their party, a term called “gerrymandering.”

This year, redistricting will occur after the November elections.  The Republicans are predicted to as win as many as eight gubernatorial seats this year which means that if this prognosis comes into fruition, they will have the ability to manipulate the balance of the Congressional seats.

Control over redistricting gives Republican governors a chance to respond to past situations where Democrats have benefited from post-census redistricting.  Eighty percent of the population growth in America has come from minorities over the last ten years.  Since World War II, the shift has cumulatively helped the Democratic Party more than the GOP, according to Michael Barone in a National Journal article that hypothesizes about what the 2012 seat shift changes will be.

An October Daily Kos story noted that in the last three election cycles, Democrats have picked up 374 House seats and 68 Senate seats nationwide, eventually controlling twice as many state legislatures than Republicans. It is predicted that the GOP will regain some seats this election season, but will fall short of reversing the trend.

Further, irrespective to any gain in seats, because the minority population growth has outpaced the majority population, even if a state like Texas, for example, wins the 10 new districts that it is predicted to get after census, at least eight of those districts will still be primarily Democratic.

Looking ahead to what is expected after the 2010 census, Barone predicted that the Sun Belt will once again gain House seats at the expense of the manufacturing states of the Midwest and Northeast. Barone predicted seven states gaining seats: Texas (9), Arizona (2), and Georgia, Nevada, Oregon, Utah and Washington (1 each). Consequently, he also predicted 11 states losing seats: New York and Ohio (2 each); and Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania (1 each)

It will be interesting to note how creative the lines are drawn by the States after the election. In the past, government redistrictors have found creative ways to draw the districts, sometimes creating unnatural shapes in order to loop in heavily Democratic regions to ensure a certain seat for the party, and in particular during an era when there was a push to get more Blacks elected into office.  Republicans can surely use that same tactic to create favorable districts for its party, especially at a time when more seats can control the political agenda.

The fate of the post 2010 census and gerrymandering will be interested to watch.

Jeneba Jalloh Ghatt represents small, women, and minority owned business and technology companies at The Ghatt Law Group LLC, the nations’ first communications law firm owned by women and minorities. She's won landmark cases on behalf of her clients which include national civil rights and public interest organizations. In addition to actively authoring several blogs, being a radio show host and sitting on the boards of three non-profits, she is a tech junkie who has been developing online web content since the very early years of the Internet, 1991 to be precise! Follow her on Twitter at @Jenebaspeaks, on her blog, Jenebaspeaks, which covers the intersection of politics and technology or on her Politics of Raising Children blog at The Washington Times Communities section.

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One Response to Gubernatorial Races Could Impact New Congressional Districting

1. Marcus Sebastian says:

   10:50pm October 20, 2010 at 10:50 pm

   Elections have consequences…and those consequences are real…

   Reply