Grim Signs for Democrats in OH and PA

Distressing signals for Democrats keep streaming in as key polls in two major electoral bellwether states show the prospect of major gains for Republicans in November.  Long considered two critical and accurate measures of the electorate’s mood in Presidential and other federal races, recent polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania are showing signs of voter disappointment with Democrats, particularly in hard fought Senate and Gubernatorial races gaining national attention.

In a soon-to-be-released survey by Raleigh, NC-based Public Policy Polling, a majority of Ohio-based respondents surveyed claim they’d prefer former President George W. Bush in the White House than current President Barack Obama – by a 50-42 margin. In another interesting and equally devastating finding, more Democrats are expressing that view, 11%, compared to Republicans who prefer Obama at 3%. Independents express the same view by a 44-37 margin.

“There’s not much doubt things are getting worse for Democrats,” observes PPP pollster Tom Jensen “[A]nd they were already pretty bad. Somehow the party base needs to get reinvigorated over the next two months or there’s going to be a very, very steep price to pay.”

Two other polls released in neighboring Pennsylvania also show problems for Democrats.

According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, former conservative Congressman Pat Toomey shows a gaping 10-point lead over retired Navy Admiral and Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak for the state’s caustic Senate race.  Most voters cite concerns over the slumping economy as their primary reason for picking Toomey 47% to 37%.  Real Clear Politics’ polling shows Toomey with an average 8.5 point spread.  Sestak will face an uphill battle into November after fighting a tough and very expensive race to defeat outgoing moderate Senator Arlen Specter (D) who left the GOP in 2009 after expressing fears he would have lost against Toomey in a primary match-up dominated by conservatives.

Reuters/Ipsos released another poll showing Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett with a wide lead over Democrat Dan Onorato, 49% to 34%.  Real Clear Politics aggregate polling shows Corbett with an average 12.5% lead.

“This is a state that is not thrilled with the way Democrats have been performing. Republicans clearly have momentum,” observed Ipsos pollster Julia Clark. “People are unhappy. The economy is bad and they feel it.”

55% of Pennsylvania respondents felt that the state was on the wrong track compared to 37% feeling as though it was headed in the right direction.  48% placed the economy as their top concern, while a small 16% was concerned with the budget deficit.  Only 42% of those surveyed gave current and outgoing Governor Ed Rendell (D) high marks for his performance.

Observers in Pennsylvania will look very closely at voting differences between the states’ two regions in the east and west.  Heavily Democratic and moderate eastern Pennsylvania will probably lean heavily to Sestak.  However, the more conservative and Republican western side of the state will favor Toomey.  In addition, Democratic strategists will work hard to motivate reliably Black voting blocks in cities like Philadelphia where the population is 45% African American.  Pennsylvania’s overall population is 12% African American.

Charles D. Ellison, Managing Editor for Politic365.com, Washington Correspondent for The Philadelphia Tribune and a weekly political analyst providing insight on WDAS-FM (Philadelphia), WVON-AM (Chicago) and KSRO-AM (Sonoma County, CA). He is author of the critically-acclaimed urban political thriller TANTRUM. More information can be found at http://www.cdellison.com

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