Presenting another troubling sign for Democrats going forward into the Congressional midterm cycle, newly released Associated Press and Gallup polls show a majority of Americans upset with the current White House and leaning in the direction of a Republican takeover come November.
Most Americans, according to the survey, express a large degree of unhappiness with the Administration over economic issues. But, in a more ominous signal that Democrats may be bracing for significant losses this year, the majority of respondents surveyed and focused on 10 of the issues claimed they would vote Republican in a local House race.
The AP poll examined voter attitudes on fifteen major policy issues, including the economy. On nine of the issues, most Americans offered negative opinions on a number of major domestic concerns with “strong opposition” to the Obama Administration’s response to dismal unemployment numbers and a ballooning federal deficit. And while most gave the President high marks on his foreign policy performance, particularly in his relationships with other countries, there was an interesting lack of approval when it came to his performance on terrorism.
“The economy is poor, we’re muddling through in Afghanistan, we’re not making much progress in the war on terror,” said Paul Goren, a University of Minnesota political scientist in comments to the Associated Press. “Every once in a while national issues can intrude. It looks like there’s a good chance this will be one of those elections.”
“We have a pretty good idea of how many seats Democrats will be losing in November,” said YouGov.com pollster Tom Riehle talking to Politic365.com. “And we know that they’ll be giving up their majority in the process. We just don’t know where exactly those seats will be lost. That’s the guessing game.”
In an equally distressing development, a new Gallup poll shows the GOP leading 51% to 41% against Democrats. According to the Gallup survey, this is the largest lead Republicans have shown in a generic contest poll, reflecting gradually growing numbers in favor of the GOP.
The survey also showed Republicans with a 25-point enthusiasm lead amongst likely Republican voters. That’s twice the enthusiasm gap found for Democrats.
“The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall’s midterm congressional elections,” observes Gallup pollster Frank Newport. “Gallup’s generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost.”